24h volume: 368.9KEnds: Dec 31, 2026Markets: 23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
85.5%September 30
MARKET COLLECTION / Geopolitical risk and diplomacy
Geopolitical risk and diplomacy
Geopolitical outcomes require careful definitions because talks, pauses and reported incidents do not always meet a market's threshold. This collection pairs the headline probability with a plain-language guide to the resolution rules.
CURATED / STABLE
NewZ editorial briefs
Editorial review / 2026-08-24
PMEditorial review / 2026-08-24
PM
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
This market asks whether China will begin a military offensive intended to take control of any qualifying Taiwan-administered territory by December 31, 2027.
Read NewZ briefPMEditorial review / 2026-08-24When will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement?
A set of deadline markets tracking whether Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to a general suspension of direct military engagement.
Read NewZ briefPMPOLYMARKET / LIVE
Live market snapshot
24h volume: 284.8KEnds: Jan 1, 2027Markets: 1
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
15.5%the U.S. invade Iran before 2027
24h volume: 220.1KEnds: Jan 1, 2027Markets: 10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
7.5%December 31
24h volume: 109.2KEnds: Dec 31, 2026Markets: 28
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
50.9%Gadi Eizenkot
24h volume: 84.5KEnds: Oct 1, 2026Markets: 19
Israel closes its airspace by...?
7%September 30
24h volume: 28.6KEnds: Dec 31, 2026Markets: 123
Iran leader end of 2026?
82.6%Mojtaba Khamenei
24h volume: 19.1KEnds: Jan 1, 2027Markets: 6
Netanyahu out by...?
47.5%December 31
24h volume: 12.3KEnds: Dec 31, 2026Markets: 1
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3.9%China invade Taiwan by end of 2026
24h volume: 11.9KEnds: Jan 1, 2027Markets: 1
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3.7%Trump acquire Greenland before 2027
24h volume: 8.3KEnds: Dec 31, 2026Markets: 57
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
84.3%Nicolás Maduro
24h volume: 6.3KEnds: Jan 1, 2027Markets: 8
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
5%December 31
TOPIC MAP / 6
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