Original market question
Fed Decision in December?
EVENT BRIEF / Monetary policy decisions
How will the Fed change rates in December 2026?
This market prices the size and direction of the change to the upper bound of the federal funds target range at the December 2026 FOMC meeting.
POLYMARKETSource image and market data: Polymarketnewz.beer / brief
- Leading chance
- 47.5%
- Status
- Open
- 24h volume
- 16K
- Ends
- Dec 9, 2026
- Markets
- 5
- Leading chance
- 25 bps increase
Probabilities and volume can be delayed. Verify the live order book and resolution rules on Polymarket before acting.
How to read the resolution
The change is measured against the level before the meeting and assigned to the displayed basis-point bracket. The FOMC statement and Federal Reserve publications are the primary sources.
EVIDENCE / EVENT LENS
Explore the evidence
One market and outcome, shared across the chart, rules and narrative.- Selected market
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
- Outcome
- Yes
POLYMARKET / PRICE
Fed Decision in December?
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Official market rulesExpand original rulesSource languageWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Original source text. The selected market's rules govern resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
01 / NEWS
Event-matched reporting
Only reporting admitted by the event relevance gate.Loading
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Known inputs & open questions
What the sources provide
The market question and any published settlement rules above come from Polymarket.
The chart shows recorded prices for the selected outcome, not a verified likelihood.
What remains unverified
Collected reporting is a recent, relevance-filtered sample, not a complete historical archive.
Prices, timing and narrative labels alone do not establish an outcome or explain what caused a move.
02 / ATTENTION
Attention
Event-level attention, not sentiment or market probability.Loading
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03 / NARRATIVE
Evidence narrative
Deterministic summary. Tone is separate from an outcome claim.Loading
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SAME COLLECTION / REVIEWED