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事件简报 / 货币政策决议

美联储将在 2026 年 12 月如何调整利率?

该市场预测 2026 年 12 月 FOMC 会议对联邦基金目标利率区间上限调整的方向和幅度。

2026 年 12 月美联储利率决议市场的美联储大楼图片POLYMARKET

图片与市场数据来源: Polymarketnewz.beer / brief

领先概率
47%
状态
可交易
24 小时成交量
1.6万
截止
2026年12月9日
子市场
5
领先概率
25 bps increase

概率与成交量可能延迟。采取行动前,请在 Polymarket 核对实时订单簿和结算规则。

市场英文原题

Fed Decision in December?

如何理解结算条件

调整幅度以会议前的利率上限为基准,并归入页面列出的基点区间。主要依据 FOMC 会后声明及美联储官方发布。

市场选项

  1. 25 bps increase47%
  2. No change44.5%
  3. 25 bps decrease7.5%
  4. 50+ bps decrease2.2%
  5. 50+ bps increase2%

证据 / 事件透镜

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图表、官方规则与叙事共用同一个市场和结果。
当前市场
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
结果
Yes
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POLYMARKET / 价格

Fed Decision in December?

正在读取 Polymarket 价格…
官方市场规则展开规则原文来源原文Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

保留来源原文;结算以当前市场的官方规则为准。

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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