Original market question
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
EVENT BRIEF / Crypto markets and milestones
Will a Satoshi-labelled wallet move Bitcoin in 2026?
The market watches for an outflow or swap from a wallet that Arkham's Intel Explorer labels as belonging to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto during the specified 2026 window.
POLYMARKETSource image and market data: Polymarketnewz.beer / brief
- Leading chance
- 4.6%
- Status
- Open
- 24h volume
- 224.8
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2027
- Markets
- 1
- Leading chance
- Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026
Probabilities and volume can be delayed. Verify the live order book and resolution rules on Polymarket before acting.
How to read the resolution
It resolves Yes if Arkham records an Outflow or Swaps transaction for the named entity between January 9 and December 31, 2026 ET; otherwise it resolves No. Credible sources are a fallback if Arkham becomes permanently unavailable.
EVIDENCE / EVENT LENS
Explore the evidence
One market and outcome, shared across the chart, rules and narrative.- Selected market
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
- Outcome
- Yes
POLYMARKET / PRICE
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
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Official market rulesExpand original rulesSource languageWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Original source text. The selected market's rules govern resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
01 / NEWS
Event-matched reporting
Only reporting admitted by the event relevance gate.Loading
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Known inputs & open questions
What the sources provide
The market question and any published settlement rules above come from Polymarket.
The chart shows recorded prices for the selected outcome, not a verified likelihood.
What remains unverified
Collected reporting is a recent, relevance-filtered sample, not a complete historical archive.
Prices, timing and narrative labels alone do not establish an outcome or explain what caused a move.
02 / ATTENTION
Attention
Event-level attention, not sentiment or market probability.Loading
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03 / NARRATIVE
Evidence narrative
Deterministic summary. Tone is separate from an outcome claim.Loading
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SAME COLLECTION / REVIEWED
